Severe drought threatens water resources and agriculture

Drought conditions have gripped nearly the entire country, with only one state spared as a bone-dry autumn left most states parched.  
In November, Kentucky became the 49th state to cross into drought conditions, leaving only one state – Alaska – drought-free during the week ending November 19, according to data from the U.S. Drought Monitor. States like Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, Rhode Island and South Dakota had 100% of their land area in drought. 
A “very dry” October and warmer temperatures are responsible for this drought expansion, Brad Pugh, a drought expert at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, told USA TODAY. 
It’s hard to directly connect drought to climate change, but as the climate continues to warm, having higher temperatures for longer periods increases the risk of drought, said Lindsay Johnson, a National Drought Mitigation Center climatologist.  
“It seemed like every state by July or August had broken some kind of temperature record,” Johnson said. “With that heat, it just puts strain on any kind of precipitation. You could get enough rain, but if it’s so hot, it’s not all going to absorb or it’s going to evaporate.” 
In the next couple of weeks, Pugh said, heavy precipitation in the Pacific Northwest could improve drought conditions there. A wet pattern is expected to continue through the remainder of November, across the middle Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley and Great Lakes which could also improve conditions in the Midwest, while the Northeast might also see an increase in precipitation. 
“I think it is safe to say that that should end the worsening drought conditions,” Pugh said, “but may not necessarily bring meaningful drought improvement.” 
With temperatures nearly 5 degrees above the 20th-century average, this October ranked as the second warmest and tied for the second driest on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. This follows 13 consecutive months of record-breaking temperatures through this summer. Climate scientists predict that this year will end as the hottest on record.
Drought is a natural climate pattern, but like other weather events, its length and severity can lead to far-reaching consequences. These include stunted crop yields, strained water supplies, disrupted winter and summer recreational sports and adverse effects on public health like respiratory illnesses due to dust exposure. 
A reduced harvest can lead to a supply shortage, driving up prices that will be passed on to consumers through their grocery bills. 
“You just may not directly feel it because you don’t necessarily live off the land, but you still are reliant upon it, and it’s going to be passed down to you somehow,” Johnson said. 
Northern Idaho is enduring a second year of drought, while still grappling with the lingering effects of last year’s drought.
David Hoekema, a hydrologist at the Idaho Department of Water Resources, told USA TODAY, “in northern Idaho, most of the agriculture there’s rain-fed and the spring crops, especially spring wheat, suffered pretty low yields.” 
The state’s 2018 hazard mitigation plan lists a litany of both short-term and long-term impacts on agriculture. “Drought can increase unemployment, increase farm credit risk, capital shortfalls and eventual loss of tax revenue,” the risk assessment plan states. 
Hoekema, who met with other water experts on Tuesday to discuss the state’s water supply, said the upcoming weather might bring some relief to the northern region. 
In neighboring Montana, conditions and dynamics vary east and west of the Rockies that cross the state.  
Zachary Hoylman, the assistant state climatologist for Montana, said that eastern Montana experienced long dry periods punctuated by isolated rain events that have done little to replenish soil moisture, as the extreme dryness prevents the water from trickling down deep into the soil. 
“So, things have been getting progressively worse and worse and worse,” Hoylman said. 
In the western part, low snowpack accumulations last year were exacerbated by warm and dry conditions which resulted in low river flows. 
Going into next spring, Hoylman said, “we are hoping to see recovery, but we need a pretty good snowpack and decent springtime conditions to drive an improvement.”
Authorities in several states have already issued drought watches and warnings, advising residents to save water. Decreased reservoir levels in New Jersey forced the state to declare a drought warning while its largest water provider urged customers to conserve water.  
On Monday, New York Governor Kathy Hochul declared a statewide drought watch, with the advisory elevated to drought “warning” in 15 counties, including New York City, “due to a continued shortage of rainfall and declining levels of streamflow and groundwater.” New York City had issued a drought watch on November 2, urging its 9 million residents to conserve water. 
Drought has also contributed to an increase in wildfires across the country, as flames spread quickly in dry vegetation. A wildfire discovered on Nov. 8 near the New York-New Jersey border burned through thousands of acres and left an 18-year-old volunteer firefighter dead. 
New York City, with its reservoirs at 20% below their normal levels, is expecting about 1.5 inches of rain this week.  
The City Department of Environmental Protection Commissioner Rohit Aggarwala said rain is a good start to reduce fire risk, but it doesn’t mean that the drought is over since the city has had a rain deficit of 8.25 inches for the last three months.
“If we have some light rain over the next month or so we probably stay above an emergency for a while. If it goes back to being bone dry like it was in October, then we might be in an emergency sooner,” said Aggarwala, in a phone interview while driving through the city’s watershed with some light rain on Thursday morning. New York City’s main climate change issue has been flooding due to intense rainfall.
“An extreme drought like the one that we’re in right now, that frankly came out of nowhere,” Aggarwala said.  
While anticipated wetter conditions in the coming weeks might offer temporary relief in some parts of the country, experts say it would require extended periods of rain and snow to overcome low water reservoirs and the lack of moisture in the soil. 
Hoylman, the Montana expert, said river flows on the western side of the state remain low, and even if they get snow in the next month or two, improvements won’t start right away. 
“We don’t expect to see a lot of recovery in those conditions until the next snowmelt season,” Hoylman said. 
In Idaho, where agriculture suffered in the north, conditions could improve with the storm that hit the West Coast this week. 
“We got this nice atmospheric river that’s creating havoc to the west of us that should bring us lots of precipitation, which is great,” Hoekema said. “I think with the La Niña conditions, it’s very likely northern Idaho will come out of drought.”